Stone X宏观和大豆产业观点分享

行情分析研究，不仅要专注于数据、逻辑和策略，还要多角度的验证猜想，极力的了解反方观点。现将权威机构Stone X 最新观点整理如下。仅供参考，不代表玛合雅观点。

第一部分：

The focus shifts away from Nvidia toward a busy data week and the prospect of a government shutdown in the days ahead. Wall Street doesn’t care too much about a government shutdown, as long as it doesn’t last long, but it does care if the circus surrounding the debate in Congress leads to a credit downgrade, and that’s increasingly a risk that must be respected. Credit downgrades raise interest costs, and higher interest rates are inflationary while also stagnating the economy. We’ll get durable goods orders data tomorrow, followed by PCE inflation data on Thursday, in addition to a plethora of other economic data. The VIX is trading near 14 again this morning, while the dollar index is trading near 103.8. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.27%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.71%. Crude oil prices are mixed this morning, while grain and oilseed prices were mixed to lower, with wheat and corn making new lows once again.

摘要:

·市场焦点已从英伟达转移到即将到来的数据密集周以及政府停摆的可能性。

·只要持续时间不长，华尔街对政府停摆并不太在意。

·但如果围绕国会辩论的闹剧导致信用评级下调，市场就会受到关注，这种情况发生的风险正在上升。

·信用评级下调会提高利率，而更高的利率既会带来通胀，也会使经济停滞。

·除了其他大量经济数据外，我们将在明天获得耐用商品订单数据，并在周四获得个人消费支出 (PCE) 通胀数据。

·今天早些时候，VIX 指数再次接近 14，美元指数接近 103.8。

·10 年期美国国债收益率接近 4.27%，2 年期美国国债收益率接近 4.71%。

·今天早些时候，原油价格表现不一，谷物和油籽价格表现不一至下跌，其中小麦和玉米再次创下新低。

术语解释:

·VIX 指数: 波动率指数，用于衡量标普 500 指数期权的隐含波动率。

·美元指数: 反映美元兑六种主要货币 (欧元、日元、英镑、瑞士法郎、加拿大元和瑞典克朗) 的汇率变动。

·10 年期美国国债收益率: 美国政府发行的 10 年期国债的年收益率。

·2 年期美国国债收益率: 美国政府发行的 2 年期国债的年收益率。

·个人消费支出 (PCE) 通胀数据: 美国联邦储备委员会 (FED) 衡量通胀的一种指标。

第二部分：

Some of those Brazil soybeans are making it north to the United States. Shipment data shows three cargoes containing 3.8 million bushels of Brazilian soybeans are expected to make their way to the U.S. Southeast for processing. That’s not unusual when Brazil has big supplies relative to the United States, and it doesn’t make much of a dent in the U.S. balance sheet, but it does tend to have a big psychological impact on the market. Brazil exported roughly 15 million bushels of soybeans to the United States last year, but just a miniscule amount the year prior to that. AgRural lowered its current-year soybean production estimate for Brazil to 147.7 million metric tons this morning, down from 150.1 mmt the previous month. StoneX Brazil’s customer survey pegged the crop at 150.35 mmt on February 1st, and it will be releasing updated survey results at the end of this week. I have long felt that the crop would end up in the 147 to 149 mmt range, but that may be too low based on some of the satellite acreage estimates emerging. Regardless, it would take production estimates much lower than that to justify rationing U.S. demand with higher prices, based on current production estimates for Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay.

摘要:

·来自巴西的380万蒲式耳大豆将运往美国东南部加工，这在美国豆供应紧张时比较常见。

·虽然数量不大，但会对市场心理产生较大影响。

·巴西去年向美国出口了约 1500 万蒲式耳大豆，今年的产量估计为 1.477 亿吨，略低于此前预期。

·作者认为今年产量可能落在 1.47-1.49 亿吨区间，但基于卫星图像估算的种植面积，实际产量可能更高。

·考虑到阿根廷、巴拉圭和乌拉圭的产量，即使产量低于预期，也不太可能出现通过高价限制美国需求的情况。

详细内容:

·一些巴西大豆正被运往美国北部。

·航运数据显示，预计有三艘载有 380 万蒲式耳巴西大豆的货船将运往美国东南部加工。

·当巴西的大豆供应量相对于美国较多时，这种情况并不少见，并且不会对美国的收支平衡产生太大影响，但会对市场心理产生重大影响。

·2023年，巴西向美国出口了大约 1500 万蒲式耳大豆，而前一年只有少量出口。

·今天早上，巴西农村部 (AgRural) 将其对巴西本年度大豆产量的估计从上个月的 1.501 亿吨下调至 1.477 亿吨。

·StoneX 巴西公司在 2 月 1 日进行的客户调查将作物产量估计为 1.5035 亿吨，本周末他们将发布更新的调查结果。

·作者一直认为今年的产量将在 1.47-1.49 亿吨之间，但基于一些新的卫星图像种植面积估计，这个数字可能偏低。

·综合考虑阿根廷、巴拉圭和乌拉圭的产量预期，即使产量低于预期，也不太可能出现通过抬高价格来限制美国需求的情况。

第三部分：

Managed money continues to build record to near-record short positionsacross the grain and oilseed sector, pulling prices to their lowest level in roughly three years – depending on the market. These markets are oversold, and this may feel like a final flush. But the truth is that they still lack a fundamental reason to force a change in market direction. That could come via a headline tied to geopolitical risks, or it could come via a weather problem in Brazil or the United States over the next several months, but today’s sentiment remains entrenched. Cheap prices are creating demand, and that will eventually be the roots of the next rally down the road. End users will have incentive to increase coverage on signs of a bottom, and fund managers will also have incentive to unwind short positions. But the timing of such and from what level we make that bottom is still yet to be determined by this market.

摘要:

资金管理者持续增持创纪录或接近纪录的谷物和油籽空头头寸，拉低价格至近三年最低水平

尽管谷物和油籽市场目前处于超卖状态，并且价格触及近三年低点，但这可能只是最后的抛售潮。 然而，这些市场仍缺乏迫使市场方向改变的根本性因素。

潜在的转机可能来自于与地缘政治风险相关的新闻头条，或是未来几个月巴西或美国的天气问题。 但目前市场情绪依然低迷。

低廉的价格正在创造需求，这将最终成为未来下一轮上涨的根源。 当市场触底的迹象出现时，终端用户将有动力增加买入，基金经理也将有动力减持空头头寸。

然而，市场何时以及从什么水平触底目前仍无法确定。

关键词解释：

·资金管理者 (Managed money): 指专业理财机构，例如共同基金和对冲基金。

·空头头寸 (Short positions): 指投资者预期价格下跌而进行的卖空操作。

·超卖 (Oversold): 指市场价格可能已经过快下跌，存在反弹的可能性。

·地缘政治风险 (Geopolitical risks): 指与国家之间政治关系紧张或冲突相关的风险。

·终端用户 (End users): 指最终将商品用于消费或生产的企业或个人。

·触底 (Bottom): 指价格下跌趋势的结束点。